Mobile service revenue in Australia to increase at 4.5% CAGR over 2023-2028, forecasts GlobalData

27th Mar 2024: The total mobile service revenue in Australia is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% from $8.7 billion in 2023 to $10.8 billion in 2028, supported by growth in mobile data service revenues, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest Australia Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q4 2023) reveals that the growth in mobile data service revenue will offset the decline in mobile voice service revenue during the forecast period.

While mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 1.6% between 2023 and 2028 due to consumer shift towards OTT communication platforms and subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU, mobile data revenue will increase at a CAGR of 5.7% over the same period, driven by the continued rise in mobile internet subscriptions, growing adoption of 5G services and an increase in mobile data average revenue per user (ARPU) over the forecast period.

Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly mobile data usage in Australia is expected to increase from 14.4 GB in 2023 to 28.7 GB in 2028, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, thanks to data-centric offers extended by telcos with their 4G and 5G service plans.”

Mobile service revenue

Australia Mobile

GlobalData expects 5G service adoption to increase over the forecast period driven by the growing consumer demand for high-speed connectivity and the ongoing 5G network expansions by major telecom operators across the country. For instance, TPG Telecom is in the process of deploying 1,000 additional 5G mobile sites each year starting 2023 until 2025. 5G subscriptions will account for the majority 82.4% share of total mobile subscriptions in 2028.

Zeeshan concludes: “Telstra led the mobile services market in Australia in terms of mobile subscriptions in 2023, followed by Optus and TPG Telecom. Telstra will retain its leading position through to 2028, supported by its strong focus on 5G network expansion and modernization. Telstra aims to provide 5G coverage to 95% of the country’s population by 2025.”

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